Our model gives Etar a 50% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Etar have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas have done so in 0 of their last 3.