Our model gives El Porvenir a 29% chance to win this one, against 34% for a draw and 37% for Deportivo Español.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 28% likelihood against 72% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, El Porvenir have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Deportivo Español have done so in 0 of their last 3.