Our model gives Detroit City a 51% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Pittsburgh Riverhounds.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 38% likelihood against 62% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Detroit City have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Pittsburgh Riverhounds have done so in 0 of their last 4.