Our model gives Derry City a 59% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Galway United.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Derry City have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Galway United have done so in 0 of their last 4.