Our model gives Connecticut United a 72% chance to win this one, against 14% for a draw and 14% for Inter Miami II.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 73% likelihood against 27% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Connecticut United have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Inter Miami II have done so in 1 of their last 3.