Our model gives Charleston Battery a 80% chance to win this one, against 13% for a draw and 7% for Monterey Bay.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 70% likelihood against 30% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Charleston Battery have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Monterey Bay have done so in 3 of their last 4.