Our model gives Celtic a 56% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Ferencvárosi.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Celtic have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Ferencvárosi have done so in 2 of their last 5.