Our model gives CA Lugano a 34% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 35% for Estrella del Sur.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 35% likelihood against 65% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, CA Lugano have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Estrella del Sur have done so in 0 of their last 4.