Our model gives Buxton a 67% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 15% for Ashton United.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 64% likelihood against 36% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Buxton have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Ashton United have done so in 1 of their last 3.