Our model gives Briton Ferry a 35% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 43% for Trefelin.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 64% likelihood against 36% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Briton Ferry have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Trefelin have done so in 2 of their last 3.