Our model gives Brežice a 42% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Rudar Velenje.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Brežice have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Rudar Velenje have done so in 1 of their last 2.