Our model gives Boyacá Chicó a 43% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Alianza Petrolera.

Both teams are projected to score in 40% of simulations, against 60% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 34% likelihood against 66% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Boyacá Chicó have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Alianza Petrolera have done so in 2 of their last 3.