Our model gives Baltika Kaliningrad a 19% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 56% for Zenit.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 43% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Baltika Kaliningrad have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Zenit have done so in 3 of their last 4.