Our model gives Bærum a 51% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 28% for Union Carl Berner.

Both teams are projected to score in 67% of simulations, against 33% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 72% likelihood against 28% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Bærum have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Union Carl Berner have done so in 4 of their last 4.