Our model gives Atlético Nacional a 45% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Mario Mendez.

Both teams are projected to score in 66% of simulations, against 34% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 66% likelihood against 34% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlético Nacional have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Mario Mendez have done so in 3 of their last 4.