Our model gives Astana II a 52% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 28% for Ekibastuz.

Both teams are projected to score in 66% of simulations, against 34% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 69% likelihood against 31% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Astana II have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Ekibastuz have done so in 2 of their last 3.