Our model gives Arys a 50% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 30% for Aktobe Jas.

Both teams are projected to score in 67% of simulations, against 34% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 70% likelihood against 30% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Arys have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Aktobe Jas have done so in 2 of their last 3.