Our model gives Arda a 54% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Cherno More.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Arda have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Cherno More have done so in 3 of their last 4.