Our model gives Ararat-Armenia a 38% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Sparta Praha.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ararat-Armenia have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6, and Sparta Praha have done so in 5 of their last 6.